Low prices and mill closures are set to cause the biggest sugar shortfall in six seasons. Platts Kingsman predicts that world production is set to trail consumption by 5.25 million tons in 2015-16.
The analysis group estimates that output will fall by 2m tonnes to 177.10 million tons, continuing a trend that began in 2012-13.
The drop has been attributed to pressure on producers' margins caused by constantly dropping prices, while consumption has increased by 1.7%.
"Despite the efforts of many governments to protect rural income, lower sugar prices have affected mills' profits and farmers' revenues," Platts Kingsman said. "The direct consequence of this has been the bankruptcy of mills."