On the radar - market trends for whey proteins, dairy substitutes and trans fats

It is often reported that consumers are growing more health-conscious – more concerned than ever before with good nutrition and clean eating. However, the definition of healthy eating has never been stable. As evidence accumulates, certain ingredients become virtually blacklisted, while others become near ubiquitous.

Think of trans fats, which were once seen as a ‘healthy’ substitute for saturated fats. Today, the link between trans fats and coronary artery disease is well established, and a number of bodies – including the World Health Organization (WHO) – are pushing for a global ban.

Meanwhile, products once seen as extremely niche – think of almond milk – are permeating the mainstream market
as the products they’re replacing fall out of favour.

So what are some key trends in the global food industry now, as we reach the end of 2016? Below, we shine the spotlight on whey protein, dairy substitutes and trans fats, exploring some of the factors that lie behind changing patterns of consumption.

Whey protein

The global whey protein market is growing fast, expected to climb from $9.2 billion in 2015 to $13.5 billion by 2020. These figures, from BCC Research, paint a revealing picture: whey protein is no longer the preserve of bodybuilders, but is finding a diverse range of applications across all sectors.

While the sports-nutrition market is expected to grow from $1.7 billion to $2.7 billion, general food and beverage applications are increasing too, surging from $4.3 billion to $5.5 billion. Most of the demand is still coming from the US and Europe, with growing consumer interest in Asia-Pacific and Latin America.

So why is whey protein attracting so much attention and what kinds of benefits have been attested?

Whey itself is a derivative of cheese production – the leftover liquid that forms when milk is coagulated. This contains
20 essential amino acids, which can be isolated to create whey protein products. Three of the most widely available are whey protein concentrate, whey protein isolate and hydrolysed whey protein.

Although technically a dairy product, whey protein is not typically allergenic – the real culprit here is a different milk protein, casein. It does contain lactose, the sugar associated with milk-digestion problems, but not in large quantities. According to the Whey Protein Institute, most whey protein powders contain 0.1g of lactose per tablespoon of powder, meaning people with a milder intolerance may be able to stomach it without symptoms.

The recommended protein intake for the average person is not especially high. In the US, the 'dietary reference intake' is 0.8g of protein a day per kilogram of body weight, which works out at about 56g a day for the average sedentary man.

This means the majority of the population should not require whey protein supplementation. However, it is helpful for athletes. Compared with other protein sources, it contains an unusually high level of glutamine and branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs), which enable the body to preserve muscle after strenuous exercise. 

While mostly associated with strength training, many whey protein manufacturers are now marketing their products as suitable for endurance athletes too. Research suggests that endurance athletes actually have similar protein needs to weightlifters, although these users are more likely to be interested in muscular recovery than muscular hypertrophy per se.

For those who want to gain muscle, most studies suggest that 1.5–2.2g a day per kilogram of body mass (around 140g for an average male) is appropriate. However, a recent study from Stirling University suggests the true figure isn’t dependent so much on body weight as it is on the type and intensity of strength training.

Whey protein may have other benefits too. It appears to boost levels of the antioxidant glutathione, which is crucial to the proper function of the immune system. This in itself has a bearing on recovery from exercise.

Other studies have suggested that whey protein may reduce cancer rates, lower blood pressure and improve liver function, although the evidence base here is somewhat limited.

Outside of sports supplementation, whey protein is an important component of many infant formulas, snacks and dairy products. It is also used extensively in food and beverage manufacturing processes.

Although this is certainly a promising time to be involved in this market, growth is unlikely to spiral unchecked, with high manufacturing costs placing a dampener on production. As whey protein ingredients grow more expensive, supplement manufacturers are likely to pass on that cost to the end consumer, stymieing market growth to some extent.

Dairy replacements

According to research by MarketsandMarkets, the market for dairy alternatives is surging. Globally, it is projected to grow from $8.2 billion in 2014 to $19.5 billion in 2020, with a CAGR of 15.5%. And while soy milk is by far the largest segment (expected to reach $13.6 billion by 2020), almond milk is growing the fastest, at a CAGR of 16.0%.

This skew towards soy milk reflects its popularity in Asia. Because Asian populations are typically lactose intolerant, soy beverages are widely used in their stead. Today, Asia-Pacific dominates the dairy-replacement market, commanding 42.7% of market share in 2014. Growth in this region is estimated at 19.9% by 2020.

Elsewhere in the world, almond milk (along with alternatives such as rice milk, hazelnut milk, coconut milk and even hemp milk) is on the rise. Each of these has a slightly different nutritional profile and may appeal to a different consumer group: oat and hazelnut milk are high in fibre, for instance, while hemp milk contains omega-3 fatty acids.

Last year, the UK supermarket Waitrose reported that almond milk had overtaken soy as its best-selling dairy alternative. In the US, almond milk is now the undisputed king of the alt-milk aisle. According to the Nielsen Company, sales of almond milk grew 250% between 2010 and 2015, peaking at $895 million last year (more than double the market size for soy).

In September 2016, the coffee chain Starbucks began rolling out almond milk (styled ‘Almondmilk’) across all its US stores, in addition to the soy and coconut milk already on offer. This followed nearly 96,000 customer requests for an almond-milk option.

“Starbucks Almondmilk has light almond notes without any added flavouring. An 8oz serving has just 3g of sugar, compared with 12–13g of naturally occurring sugar in 2% dairy milk. It can be used in any handcrafted Starbucks beverage for an additional [$0.60] charge,” noted the coffee chain in a press release.

Forbes described this decision as an “investment in the future”, noting that the introduction of almond milk is likely to help the company drive revenues. The research company Mintel has found that 49% of Americans consume non-dairy milk, including 68% of parents and 54% of children under 18. Because 91% said they consumed dairy products too, it appears that consumers are shifting to non-dairy milk as a preference and not a necessity.

Mintel suggested that ingredient innovation could spur further growth in this sector. Non-dairy milks are relatively low in protein, which may prove to be an issue for some health-conscious consumers. This means companies that can offer high-protein variants are likely to perform well.

In general, the mood is optimistic – and some unexpected players are looking to capitalise on the trend. In June 2016,
Coca-Cola purchased Unilever’s AdeS soy beverage business in Latin America, to the tune of $575 million. It has also signed a deal to buy a line of Chinese protein drinks made with plant proteins such as green beans or walnuts.

Trans fats

In June 2015, US FDA announced that artificial trans fats are no longer generally recognised as safe (GRAS). Manufacturers have until mid-2018 to eliminate partially hydrogenated oils from their products, meaning many of them are currently in the process of reformulating their recipes.  This change came as little real surprise – there has been a labelling law in place since 2006, requiring manufacturers to specify how much trans fat is in their product. Trans-fat intake plummeted by 78% between 2003 and 2012, in part due to the labelling law along with various state restrictions.

The wholesale ban, however, is expected to have dramatic consequences. While it is projected to cost the food industry $6.2 billion over 20 years, this is far outweighed by the reductions in healthcare spending, estimated as $140 billion. The move will prevent 20,000 heart attacks and 7,000 deaths a year.

From a global point of view, the US is ahead of the curve. While different countries have different legal limits in place, trans-fat consumption remains a major public health problem. There are now overwhelming grounds to state these artificial oils cause coronary heart disease.

In 2003, WHO recommended that consumption should be limited to less than 1% of total energy intake. More recently, it published a review of the available evidence, collating 16 studies in the field. This report, released in June 2016, found that replacing trans fatty acids with polyunsaturated fatty acids consistently improved cholesterol levels, in a direction associated with a reduced risk of heart disease.

“The model generated… was linear, demonstrating a consistent effect on blood lipids and lipoproteins across all levels of reduction (or increase) in trans fatty acid intake,” wrote the authors. (In other words: the higher the intake, the higher the health risks.)

The question now is which countries and continents will be next to make the leap. Europe seems a promising contender – over the past couple of years, WHO has called for trans fats to be eliminated across the continent, and the European Commission has released a report calling for pan-European legislation.

At present, European consumption varies widely. Some member states have set their own legal limits, most notably Denmark, which virtually eradicated trans fats as far back as 2003. Others have implemented voluntary policy programmes designed to disincentivise its use. But in pockets of Southern and Eastern Europe, intake remains relatively high.

According to the European Heart Network, which updated its position paper on trans fats in February 2016, strictly limiting trans fats across all EU member states could save around 50,000 lives a year, and billions of euros in cardiovascular-related healthcare costs.

Momentum is now growing for global legislation. WHO is expected to escalate the matter at its global health promotion meeting in November in Shanghai.

According to WHO: “It is unlikely that legally limiting trans-fat content in food would have any major negative consequences and doing so may contribute to reducing inequalities.”

We can only hope that the US is an early mover in what turns out to be a worldwide trend.